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Washington: The Trump administration's rapid efforts to dramatically shrink the size of the federal government have economists rethinking forecasts for another solid year of labour market expansion in 2025.Already, Bloomberg Economics estimates tens of thousands of federal jobs have been cut in the six weeks since President Donald Trump took office. Comerica Bank, Evercore ISI and Barclays are among firms who say total job losses could top half a million by the end of the year.That number, which includes knock-on effects in the private sector, would effectively reverse a quarter of all job growth in 2024. The government's monthly report on US employment for February due Friday may show limited signs of the damage, though the impact is set to become more apparent in March and April."If these numbers on federal workers turn out to be accurate, and if you include the grantees and the contracts, these numbers are going to be significant," said Harry Holzer, a Georgetown University professor and former Labor Department chief economist. A report published Thursday by the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed job cuts announced by employers rose last month to the highest level since 2020, and weekly data on filings for unemployment insurance showed a surge in claims from laid-off federal workers.

Washington: The US trade deficit surged to a new record in January, government data showed Thursday, as imports spiked while tariff worries flared in the month of President Donald Trump's inauguration.Trump returned to the White House this year with pledges to ease cost-of-living pressures for voters, but on the campaign trail he also raised the possibility of sweeping levies across US imports.The overall trade gap of the world's biggest economy ballooned 34 percent to $131.4 billion, on the back of a 10 percent jump in imports for the month, said the Commerce Department.This was the widest deficit for a month on record, dating back to 1992, and the expansion was more than analysts anticipated.The latest figures came after the US economy saw its goods deficit hit a fresh record too for the full year of 2024 -- at $1.2 trillion.In January, imports came in at $401.2 billion, and this was $36.6 billion more than the level in December, Commerce Department data showed.US exports, meanwhile, rose $3.3 billion between December and January to $269.8 billion.Among sectors, imports of industrial goods jumped, and imports of consumer goods rose notably by $6.0 billion.Tariff jittersAnalysts say that the deficit was likely bolstered by gold imports.But "stripping out this impact, all other imports rose 5.5 percent, indicating front-loading of shipments was in full swing," said Oxford Economics senior economist Matthew Martin.This refers to a tendency for businesses to try and get ahead of additional costs from potential tariffs, as well as possible supply chain disruptions down the line."The impact of new tariff proposals make the outlook uncertain," Martin said.Economists Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics said of the surge in gold imports: "Tariff threats are reportedly prompting a mass repatriation of gold holdings to the US from elsewhere, mostly via Switzerland."But other analysts like Carl Weinberg and Mary Chen of High Frequency Economics caution that they are looking for a "snapback in imports" in February and March figures to show if importers are truly seeking to get ahead of Trump's levies."It is hard to prove that," they said in a note.US deficits with other economies were a key focus of Trump's first administration from 2017 to 2021, and at the time he waged a bruising tariffs war with China in particular.This time the Trump administration has referred to tariffs as a means to raise government revenue, remedy imbalances and exert pressure on other governments over American priorities.In January, US goods deficits with China and the European Union both widened.On the campaign trail last year ahead of November's election, Trump vowed reciprocal tariffs on nations that taxed US-made products, dubbing this the "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act."Since returning to office, the Republican has launched plans for "reciprocal tariffs" tailored to each US trading partner, to tackle trade practices deemed unfair by Washington.He has promised an announcement on these levies on April 2, while also threatening tariffs on other imports ranging from semiconductors to autos.Trump hiked tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in his first presidential term too -- an action he has revived since returning to office.A sharp 25 percent levy on the metals is set to take effect this month.