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New Delhi: Gold is expected to deliver a stellar 15-18% return in Samvat 2081, driven by positive economic factors and safe-haven demand, analysts said.Samvat 2081 marks an important period for Indian investors as it signals the start of a new financial year in the Hindu calendar, coinciding with the auspicious festival of Diwali.Gold and silver have delivered a robust performance in Samvat 2080, and the outlook remains positive for Samvat 2081, though investors may see moderate gains amid possible shifts in global market factors, they added."The outlook for gold in Samvat 2081 remains positive. We expect a base performance of 10% with potential for 15-18% gains if the import duty cut continues to drive buying momentum. However, any hike in import duties could push gold's performance beyond 15%. A stable interest rate environment could also support a gradual upward trend," Jateen Trivedi, Vice President of Research for Commodities and Currency at LKP Securities, told PTI.Gold has outperformed many asset classes in Samvat 2080, delivering over 30% returns compared to 25% from Nifty. This strong performance was fuelled by geopolitical tensions and escalating conflicts worldwide, along with the interest rate cycle turning in major economies, making gold a reliable safe-haven investment, Trivedi said, explaining that the precious metal's status as a secure investment strengthened amid a volatile economic landscape.Geopolitical conflicts, shifts in monetary policy of global economies, and industrial demand have boosted the yellow metal to touch record highs of ₹82,400 per 10 gram in the national capital on Thursday. With this, the precious metal price has recorded a 35% surge since October 2023 when it was at ₹61,200 per 10 grams.Echoing similar sentiments, Pranav Mer, Vice President of Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services, emphasised on gold's strong domestic run last year, supported by sustained central bank purchases and shifts in global interest rate policies, leading to increased buying from exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors.In overseas markets, the precious metal saw gains of up to 40% driven by central banks' appetite for the precious metal amid geopolitical risks and prospects of future interest rate cuts.On the other hand, silver has played the catch up game with gold in Samvat 2080, yielding around 40% gains due to its dual appeal as a precious and industrial metal, noted Jateen Trivedi.The performance was bolstered by monetary dynamics similar to gold and also by strong demand for base metals and Chinese economic stimulus measures."The outlook for the metal remains positive with expectation of loose monetary policies globally, revival in the Chinese economy, and rising demand from solar industries, electronics, etc," Mer said.He added that silver's demand as an industrial metal will continue to grow as economies expand their renewable energy commitments.In Samvat 2081, analysts said investors will be closely watching global monetary policies and demand trends within key sectors to gauge the precious metals' trajectory. Both metals are expected to remain attractive amid economic uncertainties."Gold and silver prices are expected to continue their upward trend, but investors may experience steadier gains this year as opposed to the high momentum seen in Samvat 2080," Mer said, summarising the outlook for the year ahead.

New York: No one knows how Tuesday's presidential election will turn out, but the Federal Reserve's move two days later is much easier to predict: With inflation continuing to cool, the Fed is set to cut interest rates for a second time this year.The presidential contest might still be unresolved when the Fed ends its two-day meeting Thursday afternoon, yet that uncertainty would have no effect on its decision to further reduce its benchmark rate. The Fed's future actions, though, will become more unsettled once a new president and Congress take office in January, particularly if Donald Trump were to win the White House again.Trump's proposals to impose high tariffs on all imports and launch mass deportations of unauthorised immigrants and his threat to intrude on the Fed's normally independent rate decisions could send inflation surging, economists have said. Higher inflation would, in turn, compel the Fed to slow or stop its rate cuts.On Thursday, the Fed's policymakers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, are on track to cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point, to about 4.6%, after having implemented a half-point reduction in September. Economists expect another quarter-point rate cut in December and possibly additional such moves next year. Over time, rate cuts tend to lower the costs of borrowing for consumers and businesses.The Fed is reducing its rate for a different reason than it usually does: It often cuts rates to boost a sluggish economy and a weak job market by encouraging more borrowing and spending. But the economy is growing briskly, and the unemployment rate is a low 4.1%, the government reported Friday, even with hurricanes and a strike at Boeing having sharply depressed net job growth last month.Instead, the central bank is lowering rates as part of what Powell has called "a recalibration" to a lower-inflation environment. When inflation spiked to a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, the Fed proceeded to raise rates 11 times - ultimately sending its key rate to about 5.3%, also the highest in four decades.But in September, year-over-year inflation dropped to 2.4%, barely above the Fed's 2% target and equal to its level in 2018. With inflation having fallen so far, Powell and other Fed officials have said they think high borrowing rates are no longer necessary. High borrowing rates typically restrict growth, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and auto sales."The restriction was in place because inflation was elevated," said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. "Inflation is no longer elevated. The reason for the restriction is gone."Fed officials have suggested that their rate cuts would be gradual. But nearly all of them have expressed support for some further reductions. "For me, the central question is how much and how fast to reduce the target for the (Fed's key) rate, which I believe is currently set at a restrictive level," Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed's Board of Directors, said in a speech last month.Jonathan Pingle, an economist at Swiss bank UBS, said that Waller's phrasing reflected "unusual confidence and conviction that rates were headed lower."

New Delhi: Encouraging planned development of peri-urban areas while discouraging haphazard growth and illegal constructions is likely to be the focus area to tap into Sixteenth Finance Commission grants. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs is finalising its recommendation to the commission to incentivise planned urbanisation of peri-urban areas, people aware of the matter said.The ministry has formed sub-groups to address specific areas like political intervention, administrative reforms and financial resources, they said.The five-member Sixteenth Finance Commission, chaired by former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya, was constituted on December 31, 2023, and is expected to finalise its recommendations by October 2025. Its recommendations will be valid for five years from 2026-27 to 2031-32.The commission is expected to recommend ways to augment the revenues of urban local bodies.While the Fifteenth Finance Commission incentivised urban reforms with a sharp focus on rapid urbanisation, the ministry now wants to incentivise planned development of peri-urban areas, people cited above said."While the Fifteenth Finance Commission's focus was cities, we want this time to focus on peri-urban areas so that states start planning for urbanisation and not just allow these areas to grow organically and haphazardly," a senior official, who did not wish to be identified, told ET, adding that the ministry is looking at involving various planning bodies in this process."The problem is that these planning bodies at the state level are very top heavy with, say, the chief minister as the head. How many times can these bodies meet in a year and discuss micro issues? These processes and structures need to be broken down. This can be done only if these are incentivised," the official said.The Fifteenth Finance Commission categorised urban local bodies into two groups based on population - those with a population of less than one million received basic grants while those with a population of more than one million received 100% performance-linked grants. It recommended a total of Rs 1,21,055 crore for urban local bodies from 2021-2026. The finance commission decides what proportion of the Centre's net tax revenue goes to states (which is known as vertical devolution) and how this share is distributed among various states (which is known as horizontal devolution).