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After headline equity index Nifty fell 1,420 points in just 6 trading sessions, the 5.5% correction was deep enough to revive fears of an impending stock market crash before Haryana assembly election results brought out the bulls from their hideout on Tuesday.Going by past market trends, the broader outlook on Indian equities and the firepower of domestic investors to firewall the impact of FII selling, Nifty may surprise despite all the noise around peak valuations and geopolitical troubles.6-day stress testSince Covid days, when we started noticing the trend of bear markets getting shorter, a six-day consecutive fall in Nifty typically leads to positive returns.In the last 9 such six-day declines since 2020, Nifty has given positive returns 8 times in the next 7 days, 1 month as well as 3 months, shows data collated by SAMCO Securities.On an average, the next 7-days have given a return of nearly 3% while the 3-month delights with a double-digit return of 10.59%.<iframe title="What happens to Nifty after 6 days of consecutive fall" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-95bC1" src="https://et-infographics.indiatimes.com/graphs/95bC1/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="399" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();</script>"This indicates that despite short-term volatility, markets typically regain momentum in the medium term. The pullback of FIIs has exacerbated this correction, but a key point of strength is the significant cash reserves held by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors. They are well-positioned to capitalise on these corrections, providing a buffer against prolonged downturns," T Manish, Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said.As history shows, such corrections present valuable opportunities for long-term investors to strategically build and strengthen their portfolios.Given the positive average forward returns, particularly over three months, this is an opportune time to rebalance and accumulate quality stocks at lower valuations, potentially enhancing returns and generating better alpha over time, he said.The only time in this decade when this 6-day stress test has failed to yield positive returns was in 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war made the recovery tougher.What typically happens after Nifty falls 4%?In the last 10 years whenever the Nifty has fallen 4% in a single week, the market has gone up by an average of over 5% in the next 3 months. The index has an 86% track record of being a winner in the next 3 months after a big fall.The last such big decline of over 4% in a week was noticed in June 2022 when Nifty fell 5.6% but ended up 16.6% higher in the next 3 months, according to SAMCO Securities.The only exception to this trend was seen in February 2020 when lockdowns and economic crisis amid Covid delayed the bounce back.Street ViewWhile on one hand, FIIs have been selling almost a billion dollars worth of Indian stocks every day apparently to buy the more lucrative Chinese equities, domestic institutional investors as well as retail investors have been comfortably buying the dip.While there is a risk of some near-term underperformance of Dalal Street, any significant sell-down in India stocks might yet prove to be a buying opportunity.Nomura analysts said India's structural story is still intact and will continue to benefit from longer-term themes such as supply chain relocation, and a push toward investment led-growth."While China has pledged fiscal support, details are still lacking, and should China disappoint on announcement and execution, investors will likely be quick to pounce back into India equities," said Nomura's Chetan Seth.For global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley, India remains its largest overweight in Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets."While India remains exposed to the prevailing geopolitical milieu, greater dependence on domestic drivers with policy stability provide the necessary backstop and limit any potential downside in equities, giving us the conviction to remain overweight despite a relatively rich valuation," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Jonathan F Garner said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

RBI MPC Meeting at a Glance: The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Shaktikanta Das, announced its decision to maintain status quo but shifted its policy stance to neutral. With three new external members on board, the MPC held extensive discussions on inflation trends and macroeconomic conditions before reaching a decision.Read More: RBI Policy Meeting Live Updates: RBI holds repo rate steady The key rates remain unchanged, with the repo rate at 6.5%, the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) at 6.25%, and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) at 6.75%. The decision was supported by five out of six committee membersThe central bank has maintained steady rates for tenth consecutive meetings since its last hike in February 2023."These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the mediumterm target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth," the RBI statement read. Read More: GDP targets revised, inflation retainedKey decisions from the October MPC MeetingRepo Rate: 6.50%Standing Deposit Facility (SDF): 6.25%Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and Bank Rate: 6.75%Stance: NeutralGrowth projections for FY25The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its GDP growth forecast for FY25 at 7.2%. The RBI's growth and inflation outlook highlights global resilience, despite geopolitical risks. "India's GDP grew by 6.7% in Q1 FY 2024-25, driven by private consumption and investment," Das said. Looking ahead, the RBI highlighted that strong rainfall, steady manufacturing, and robust services are expected to boost the agriculture sector and support growth. The festival season and healthy kharif sowing will further strengthen private consumption, while consumer and business confidence remain high.Investment is backed by strong bank credit, high capacity utilisation, and government infrastructure spending. External demand is also set to improve with global trade.The GDP growth forecast shows steady figures across quarters, with 7% in Q2, followed by 7.4% in both Q3 and Q4, and a slight dip to 7.3% in Q1 of FY26.Q2 FY25: 7%Q3 FY25: 7.4%Q4 FY25: 7.4%Q1 FY26: 7.3%InflationHeadline inflation sharply declined to 3.6% in July and 3.7% in August, down from 5.1% in June. However, the September inflation is expected to rise due to adverse base effects and an upturn in food prices.Read More: RBI Meeting Key PointsFood inflation is projected to ease by Q4 FY2024-25, supported by strong kharif crop arrivals and a promising rabi season. Key crop sowing is higher than last year, with sufficient buffer stocks for cereals ensuring food security.While input cost pressures are likely to ease, the recent rise in commodity prices, particularly metals and crude oil, needs close monitoring. Considering these factors, CPI inflation for FY2024-25 is forecast at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8%, and Q4 at 4.2%. For Q1 FY2025-26, inflation is projected at 4.3%, with risks balanced.Quarterly Breakdown:Q2 FY25: Inflation is expected to be at 4.1%.Q3 FY25: A rise in inflation is anticipated, reaching 4.8%.Q1 FY26: Inflation is expected to ease slightly to 4.3%.Rationale behind monetary policy decisionsThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) emphasised that the domestic growth outlook remains resilient, driven by private consumption and investment. This stability allows monetary policy to focus on aligning inflation with its target. The MPC reiterated that long-term price stability is essential for sustained high growth. While headline inflation is expected to rise in the near term, it is projected to moderate later, with favourable conditions for both kharif and rabi crops and ample foodgrain buffer stocks.Read More: RBI MPC Meeting Key HighlightsGiven the balanced inflation-growth dynamics, the MPC shifted its monetary policy stance from 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral.' This change provides flexibility to monitor disinflation progress and continue supporting growth. The committee remains vigilant about evolving risks such as geopolitical tensions, market volatility, weather uncertainties, and rising global food and metal prices. Consequently, the MPC decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50%.Voting Results:Shri Saugata Bhattacharya, Professor Ram Singh, Dr. Rajiv Ranjan, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra, and Shri Shaktikanta Das voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%.Dr. Nagesh Kumar voted for a 25 basis point reduction.All members voted for a stance change from 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral.'The next MPC meeting is scheduled for December 4-6, 2024, and the minutes from this meeting will be published on October 23, 2024.

Mumbai: India's equity benchmarks rebounded on Tuesday, ending their six-day losing streak, as the Chinese market gave up some of its early gains in its first trading session after a week-long holiday with the government not providing additional stimulus to bolster the economy. Analysts said the Indian market was oversold after the recent declines triggered by heavy selling by foreign investors amid signs of a recovery in Chinese stocks.NSE's Nifty rose 217.4 points or 0.9% to close at 25,013. BSE's Sensex rose 584.8 points or 0.7% to end at 81,635.Elsewhere in Asia, China advanced 4.6%, while Hong Kong, considered a proxy for China in the past week because of the holiday in mainland markets, plunged 9.4%, the biggest single-day fall since 2008. South Korea declined 0.6% and Taiwan dropped 0.4%.China's main index opened almost 10% higher on Tuesday, but the rally fizzled out as investors were disappointed after the highly anticipated news conference by the chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie did not announce more plans to boost the economy. The Chinese government has announced some big-bang measures in recent weeks to revive its economy, prompting foreign investors to relook at its beaten-down equities.

Mumbai: Encouraged by the strong demand for several recent initial public offerings (IPOs), Hyundai Motor India, the country's second-largest carmaker, has increased its issue size by more than a tenth to ₹27,800 crore, up from the initially planned ₹25,000 crore, investment banking sources told ET.The offering is set to open for subscription on Tuesday, October 15, sources said.This will be India's largest public issue, surpassing the previous record set by the ₹21,008-crore public issue of the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India in May 2022.Hyundai Motor India is likely to sell the shares at a price band of ₹1,865 - 1,960 apiece. At the upper range of the price band, the company is valued at $19 billion, up from the earlier estimate of $18 billion, sources said. The issue will close on October 17.India's largest passenger car company, Maruti Suzuki, is valued at $47.53 billion. The other two listed carmakers - Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors - are valued at $43.46 billion and $27.60 billion, respectively.Hyundai India filed its red herring prospectus on Tuesday The public issue will consist entirely of an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 142.2 million shares, representing a 17.5% stake, by its South Korean parent, Hyundai Motor Co. Hyundai Motors is valued at $46.34 billion.The company filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in June and got approval from the market regulator last month.In 2023, India accounted for 13% of Hyundai Motor's global unit sales and contributed 6% to the group's revenue and profit.Hyundai's India unit had a market share of 14.5% in FY24 in the passenger car segment compared with Maruti Suzuki's 41.7% and 13.8% of Tata Motors, as per SIAM data.India's primary market has been breaking several records this year. Last month, the ₹6,560-crore public issue of Bajaj Housing Finance was subscribed 64 times, attracting bids totalling nearly ₹3.23 lakh crore - the highest-ever demand in Indian primary market history. Additionally, all five recent public issues, including Diffusion Engineers, KRN Heat Exchange, Manba Finance, Northern Arc, and Arkade Developers, were oversubscribed more than 100 times.So far in 2024, 62 companies have raised ₹64,510 crore compared to ₹49,436 crore raised by 57 companies in 2023.Kotak Investment Banking, Citi, HSBC, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are the book running lead managers for the Hyundai India IPO.

New Delhi: The government is likely to ban more fixed dose combinations (FDCs) this month as the expert committee has found that they lack therapeutic justification, people in the know said.There are about 16-odd FDCs under the scanner now. The expert committee will soon submit its report to the drug controller.A FDC contains two or more active ingredients in a fixed dose ratio."The review has been going for a long time and the report will be submitted soon," a senior official in the government said.Earlier in April the companies were asked to give a presentation, representing their case. The committee has already heard the companies and found that "there is no therapeutic justification" for these FDC and they may involve "risk" to human beings.Hence, in the larger public interest, it is necessary to prohibit the manufacture, sale or distribution of this FDC, another person said."Once the recommendations by the committee are submitted, the FDCs will be banned," added the person. They were earlier considered as "irrational" by a panel led by Chandrakant Kokate, vice-chancellor of KLE University in Karnataka. However, these FDCs have been under review by a sub-committee formed under the chairmanship of Nilima Kshirsagar, professor-head, clinical pharmacology, GS Medical College KEM Hospital, Mumbai to review the safety, efficacy and therapeutic justification of these drugs.Earlier in August, the government had banned 156 FDCs - including antibiotics, antiallergics, painkillers, multivitamins and combination doses for treatment of fever and hypertension - after a review found they posed health risks in the biggest crackdown since 2016 when 344 FDCs were prohibited.The Union health and family welfare ministry issued a gazette notification, prohibiting manufacture, sale and distribution of these medicines based on the recommendation of an expert panel that evaluated 324 FDCs.Some of the popular FDCs included a combination of mefenamic acid and paracetamol injection used for pain relief, fever and swelling, and omeprazole magnesium and dicyclomine HCl used for treatment of abdominal pain.The review of these FDCs started in 2019 and the committee gave its report at the end of 2021, recommending banning 156 FDCs. This was the largest FDC ban since 2016. According to the notification, the decision was taken following the recommendations of the Drug Technical Advisory Board (DTAB), the country's highest advisory body on drugs, and an expert committee formed by the government.