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After a 16% correction over the past five months, both momentum and sentiment indicators have reached oversold levels. As a result, a technical bounce from the key support zone of 21,800–21,500 cannot be ruled out, according to technical analysts. Stocks like HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Hindalco, Ashok Leyland, NTPC, BEL, Chola Finance, JSW Energy, Narayana Hrudayalaya, and SBI Cards look promising on the charts, with potential returns of 5–8%, analysts said.DHARMESH SHAH HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIESWhere is the Nifty headed? The equity benchmark continued its losing streak over the third consecutive week, tracking global volatility amid tariff-related ambiguity. The lack of follow-through strength above the previous week’s high signifies a continuation of corrective bias. However, investors should note that with 16% corrections over the past five months, the momentum and sentiment indicators have approached oversold conditions. Hence, the possibility of a technical bounce cannot be ruled out from the key support zone of 21,800-21,500. However, to pause the downward momentum, the index needs to witness a sharp reversal and decisively close above the earlier support of 22,800 which would act as key resistance. Eventually, we expect the index to undergo base formation over the next couple of weeks. What should investors do? We expect volatility to remain elevated, tracking further clarity on tariffs. However, looking at the oversold conditions, we advise traders to refrain from creating aggressive short positions. Focus on accumulating quality stocks (backed by strong earnings) in a staggered manner. On the sectoral front, banking, NBFC, power, consumer discretionary, and metal would be in focus. On the stock front, in large-cap, we prefer HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Hindalco, Ashok Leyland, NTPC, and BEL for 5%, while in midcaps Chola Finance, JSW Energy, Narayana Hrudayalaya, SBI Cards, Piramal Pharma, and Bluestar look good for 7-8% gains. 118670852TANMAY SHAH RESEARCH HEAD, SIHLWhere is the Nifty headed? The Nifty, having already discounted the high valuations, is now facing pressure from global factors, particularly the imposition of tariffs, which are dampening sentiment, especially in internationally-exposed sectors, which continue to weigh heavily on the index. In the near term, the Nifty is expected to trade sideways to negative, with strong support at 21,950, while if it closes above 22,450, it will bring the index closer towards 22,700-22,850 levels. Given the lack of clarity surrounding tariffs, investors should focus on companies with strong domestic exposure or minimal international dependencies and avoid sectors like IT with strong export dependency. What should investors do? In the current market setup, a systematic investment plan remains a prudent strategy amidst volatility. Focus on a sector-specifi c investment strategy that mitigates global uncertainties. Sectors that remain relatively insulated from tariff implications include banking, NBFCs, and infrastructure. In the large-cap space, stocks like Coal India, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank, and InterGlobe Aviation stand out. While high valuations make the mid and small-cap space more cautious, in the mid-cap sector, UPL, Indian Hotels, and LIC Housing look promising, while Aarti Pharmalabs and J Kumar Infra are attractive in the small-cap space.SUDEEP SHAH HEAD-TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH DESK, SBI SECURITIESWhere is the Nifty headed? On the technical front, Nifty has been trading decisively below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the third straight week, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Both the 20 and 50-week EMAs have started edging lower, while the upward slope of the 100 and 200-week EMAs has slowed down significantly, reflecting diminishing long-term strength. Given the current chart structure, a sharp V-shaped recovery looks unlikely. Instead, for a sustainable reversal, the index needs to establish a strong base near critical support levels. What should investors do? The 22,000-21,900 zone will act as crucial support. If the index slips below 21,900, then it is likely to test 21,500, and then 21,100 in the short term. On the upside, if it sustains above 22,700, then we may witness a short-covering rally up to 23,300, followed by 23,600 in the short-term. A stock-specific approach is the only way to navigate the volatility. The current capitulation phase presents a strong opportunity for longterm investors to accumulate quality large-caps and mid-caps at attractive prices. Traders should focus on the banking and financial space, which can show resilience.

A look at select stock futures contracts that have seen strong rollovers to the March series, and their near-term outlook. While Voltas, HDFC Bank and Coal India are witnessing a contrarian bullish trend, analysts see more weakness in MCX. VoltasCMP: Rs 1,322Change in Open Interest in March Series:21% Change in Price in March Series: 0.71%After having dropped 32% from the all-time high, stock futures of the consumer goods manufacturer are seeing a bullish build-up. “The stock is now showing signs of a gradual recovery and has reclaimed its short-term moving average, the 20-day EMA (exponential moving average), in the last trading session. The indicators suggest that the ongoing recovery is likely to gain further strength,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking. Mishra recommends buying Voltas March Futures in the range of Rs 1,295-1,305 with stop loss at Rs 1,240 for a potential target of Rs 1,425.HDFC BankCMP: Rs 1,730 Change in Open Interest in March Series:7% Change in Price in March Series:1.73% HDFC Bank shares have outperformed the benchmark Nifty in the past month, pointing to resilience in a weak market. “The bank has seen a fresh buildup of long positions, holding strength even after the weakness in the broader market. It formed a bullish price pattern, and put writing is also seen, so it could head towards Rs 1,835,” said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Taparia recommends buying at current levels, with a stop loss of Rs 1,680.MCX (India) CMP: Rs 4,981.5 Change in Open Interest in March Series:10% Change in Price in March Series:-7.27% MCX has weakened amid the broader weakness in shares of capital marketoriented companies. Religare Broking’s Mishra said the stock has now slipped below the support of its long-term moving average, the 200-day EMA. “The bearish chart pattern, coupled with a rise in open interest, signals the potential for further downside,” he said. He suggests traders sell MCX March Futures in the range of Rs 5,000-5,020 with stop loss at Rs 5,260 for the potential target of Rs 4,550.Coal India CMP: Rs 368.5 Change in Open Interest in March Series:10% Change in price in March Series:1.28% Coal India shares, which have been weakening since their high in August last year, may see some signs of recovery. “The stock has bottomed out and is now turning upwards after support on daily and weekly scale. It is moving up after a long time so the risk-reward ratio is favourable for traders,” said Taparia. He suggests buying with a stop loss of Rs 358, for a target of Rs 395.